“The GOP’s Greatest Existential Threat” — New Poll Shows Voters Reject Trump’s Executive Order on Childhood Vaccines

A new national survey finds that voters nationally strongly oppose President Trump’s executive order changing the federal vaccine recommendations for children. Overall they say the actions make them view Republicans less favorably.

“This is a healthcare election—affordability, access and now vaccines are on the ballot. This new poll shows vaccine policy is now the GOP’s greatest existential and political liability in the midterms. As infectious disease outbreaks spread nationwide, voters are coming face-to-face with the reality of an administration that has turned its back on science and public health—with deadly consequences. In November, voters have a chance to put a stop to this ideological warfare on evidence and facts by electing doctors and scientists to Washington to stop the bleeding,” said 314 Action President Shaughnessy Naughton. 

KEY FINDINGS:

  • 76% of voters support routine childhood vaccinations, 56% strongly, 58% of voters disapprove of Trump’s executive order; 49% strongly disapprove vs. 25% strongly approve — 2-to-1 against.
  • 71% say doctors and scientists — not Trump — should make decisions about childhood vaccines; only 14% say Trump. That’s 5-to-1. 
  • Trump said that kids were getting so much vaccination that it could fill a soda bottle, but voters don’t believe it. 43% say they think he’s lying and 27% think he’s exaggerating.
  • When presented with four messages about Trump’s executive order, in all cases 50%–54% say it makes them view Republicans less favorably (44%–48% “much less”). Voters were most alarmed by the fact Trump’s children’s vaccine recommendations may mean parents pay significantly more, viewing Republicans 54% less favorable. 
  • Trump himself is underwater as 39% approve/56% disapprove while RFK Jr. is similarly underwater at 37% approve/55% disapprove, essentially matching each other nationally.

The survey shows that Democrats can effectively counter Republican opponents over their support for the administration’s efforts to change the childhood vaccine schedule. Messages focused on costs, outbreaks, and ignoring scientific evidence make voters view Republicans less favorably. The strongest is the cost message—that undoing the recommendations means parents pay significantly more in copays and visits. 

The poll was conducted from August 17-18, 2026. It surveyed 525 registered voters nationally on behalf of Protect Our Care and 314 Action. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 4.3%. 69% of interviews were conducted by text and 31% by landline.

Read the polling memo.